BRADEN'S MARKET PREDICTIONS

Braden’s market predictions for Kelowna, heading into 2027

Kelowna’s housing market is heading into 2027 balanced, steady and a lot more workable than the headlines make it sound. Brian Buffini called for a return to a 2019-style market this year, and the Central Okanagan numbers say we’re already there.

Buffini runs Buffini & Company, a real estate coaching company, and every December he broadcasts his Bold Predictions for the year ahead. He reports that 33 of his last 36 forecasts have held up. I agree with his outlook more than I agree with most of what I read online, so I took his calls and tested each one against what’s actually happening here. Every local figure below comes from the Interior REALTORS® Matrix system, detached homes only, pulled September 9, 2026.

Prediction 1: the market finds its 2019 rhythm

Buffini’s headline call, in his December broadcast, was that the market returns to the rhythm of 2019. Not a crash. Normal inventory, normal days on market, a real spring.

Here’s how that looks locally. In the first eight months of 2019, the neighbourhoods on my Kelowna market report averaged about six months of inventory, and a typical home sold in about 42 days. The first eight months of 2026: about seven and a half months of inventory, and about 45 days. Central Okanagan detached sales from January to August were 1,464 in 2019 and 1,363 this year.

That’s close. The same kind of market, leaning a little more toward buyers.

If you’re buying, a balanced market means you get time. Time to see a home twice, inspect it properly and negotiate. If you’re selling, it means the typical home still sells in about six weeks. Nobody has to guess wildly in either direction.

Prediction 2: prices hold steady

In his mid-year update in August, Buffini projected price growth of 0.9% for 2026 and said long-term housing appreciation remains solid.

Our numbers are almost eerily calm. The Central Okanagan detached median was $950,000 in 2023, $950,000 in 2024, $960,000 in 2025, and $945,000 for January to August 2026. Four years inside a band of about $15,000.

Zoom out and the long view is exactly what Buffini describes. The same median was $553,500 in 2016.

The BC Real Estate Association’s August forecast has the provincial average price slipping 1.2% this year, with disproportionate weakness in the expensive Lower Mainland. The Central Okanagan detached median is about 1.6% under last year so far. A small move in a market that has barely moved in four years.

For sellers, your equity is where you left it. For buyers, there’s no crash showing up in the data to wait for.

Prediction 3: paycheques catch up to prices

This is the prediction I think gets missed. Buffini expects wages to grow 3% to 3.5% while prices grow about 1%. That gap is quiet, and it adds up.

Canada has been doing the same thing. Statistics Canada reports that average hourly wages grew an average of 4.9% a year across 2023 and 2024, and 3.4% in 2025. Over those same years the local detached median didn’t move. Wage growth has slowed to 2.0% as of August 2026, but it’s still growing, and prices here are still flat.

Every year that holds, a Central Okanagan home costs a little less relative to what people earn. It doesn’t make headlines. It does make plans work that didn’t work in 2022.

Prediction 4: no rate shock

Buffini’s line on the U.S. Federal Reserve was that it won’t raise rates this year. On this side of the border, the Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25% on September 2, 2026, and the Bank reported second quarter growth of 3.3% and some rebound in housing activity.

I don’t forecast rates. I’m not a mortgage broker and I’d tell you to talk to one. What I’ll say is that a steady rate is a plannable rate. You can get pre-approved, know your payment and make a decision without the ground moving under you every six weeks. The next scheduled announcement is October 28.

Prediction 5: more sales ahead

In January, Buffini said he expected 400,000 to 450,000 more U.S. sales this year. By August he put U.S. sales at about four million for 2026 and said he doesn’t expect more than that next year.

Locally, it’s been a mixed year with a strong middle. June and July together had 442 detached sales in the Central Okanagan, the most for those two months since 2021. January to August overall came in at 1,363, a little under last year’s 1,410. So not a straight line, but a strong summer when it counted.

The BC Real Estate Association expects provincial sales to rise 7.5% in 2027. I think spring 2027 is busier than spring 2026 here, and the people who are ready before it starts will have the easiest time.

Prediction 6: boomers do the moving

Buffini’s mid-year numbers put boomers at 55% of sellers and 42% of buyers in the U.S. market. That’s American data, but it describes a lot of what I see in Kelowna. Plenty of the people selling here are right-sizing, moving closer to kids and grandkids, or trading a big family home for something on one level.

Many of them are selling one home and buying another in the same season. That sequence is the part that needs a plan, and I’ve written about how to sell and buy at the same time.

If you’re a younger buyer, that turnover is good news. Family homes that were held for decades are coming back to market.

Prediction 7: deals take more care

In January, Buffini said the time to get an offer has roughly doubled, and that about one in every seven U.S. deals falls apart and has to be sold again. The local version of the first half is easy to see. In August 2021, a typical home here sold in 18 days. This August it was 44.

Longer isn’t worse. It just rewards preparation. Sellers who handle repairs and paperwork before listing give buyers fewer reasons to walk. Buyers who line up financing properly before writing an offer get through subject removal without drama.

My own predictions for Kelowna

Buffini gave his. Here are mine, as my read of the data and not a guarantee.

1. Kelowna stays balanced through spring 2027. Inventory and days on market look like 2019, leaning toward buyers, and I don’t see what changes that quickly.
2. Spring 2027 is busier than spring 2026. Steady rates, flat prices and rising incomes all point the same way.
3. Well-prepared homes lead. In a balanced market the gap between a home that’s ready and one that isn’t shows up in days on market, and buyers notice.

What to do with this

If you’ve been waiting for a sign, this is a market that lets you make a plan and actually carry it out. Buyers have choice and time. Sellers have steady prices and real demand. What it rewards most is showing up prepared.

Local figures are Interior REALTORS® Matrix data for single family detached homes in the Central Okanagan, pulled September 9, 2026; months of inventory and days to sell cover the neighbourhoods on my market report. Brian Buffini’s predictions come from his Bold Predictions 2026 podcast episode and RISMedia’s coverage of his January and August talks, and refer to the U.S. market unless stated. Wage figures from Statistics Canada, rate figures from the Bank of Canada, forecasts from the BC Real Estate Association (August 2026). This is market commentary, not financial advice. Braden Koop Personal Real Estate Corporation operates under RE/MAX Kelowna. Each RE/MAX office is independently owned and operated.